向竣文;张利平;邓瑶;佘敦先;张琴;

• 1:武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室
• 2:中国电建集团昆明勘测设计研究院有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

基于耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(the coupled model intercomparison program in phase 6, CMIP6)的全球气候模式模拟数据,评估分析了全球气候模式对中国主要地区1979―2014年极端气温与极端降水特征的模拟能力。通过泰勒图及各种统计参数的对比表明,全球气候模式对中国各个地区的极端降水/气温的模拟存在显著差异,对中国地区极端气温与降水模拟最好的模式是EC-Earth3。对EC-Earth3在4种未来情景下的气温/降水数据进行偏差校正,并对中国地区未来时期极端降水/气温进行了预估。结果表明:2021―2100年,中国地区升温趋势和极端降水的增加趋势显著,4种情景下的极端气温指标和极端降水指标在21世纪50年代之前是相似的,但之后变化趋势差异增加;SSP1-2.6情景下,2021―2100年升温速率和极端降水速率增加趋势较为平缓;SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5 3种情景下,升温速率和极端降水增加速率随着模式和时间增加逐渐增大。

关键词(KeyWords)： 全球气候模式;耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(CMIP6);极端降水/气温;模拟性能;未来预估

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划项目（编号：2016YFC0402709）

作者(Authors): 向竣文;张利平;邓瑶;佘敦先;张琴;

DOI: 10.14188/j.1671-8844.2021-01-007

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